Sunday, May 31, 2015

Should Canada buy the F-22 Raptor, the best air-to-air combat fighter ever built?

It is probably neither rational nor feasible for the Canadian government to buy F-22 Raptor. For one thing, even though in Canada, defense is the single largest area of discretionary spending for the government and, consequently, capital spending for defense is frequently used to promote various political, social and economic interests relevant to industrial and regional development (Stone & Solomon, 2005); F-22 Raptor is wholly produced in the U. S., and hence buying it will have very little effect on Canadian industrial and regional development.

Also, the Canadian government has traditionally shown reluctance to spend significant amount of funds on defense (Stone & Solomon, 2005). This is largely due to the fact that the Canadian public has little concern for national defense, and when given a choice between increased spending on defense and an important social program, such as health care or education, it is nearly guaranteed to choose the latter over the former. Consequently, Canadian defense spending is always based on what the government thinks it can afford, and not underfund various social programs, rather than on what defense policy analysts might suggest (Stone & Solomon, 2005).

Finally, even though the Canadian Forces, historically, did not devote a desired level of funding to capital (Stone & Solomon, 2005); lately the Canadian government started to seriously consider making a large, and consequently, controversial investment into the future capital of its Air Force, namely the F-35s. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the Canadian government will even entertain the idea of making any additional investments into the capital of its Air Force.

References

Stone, J. C., & Solomon, B. (2005). Canadian Defence Policy and Spending. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(3), 145-169.

What strategy should Canada choose in the conflict over the Arctic Ocean?

Since the middle of last decade, most northern members of NATO (including USA) and Russia have had a strong interest in solidifying their control over, and expanding their sections of the Arctic Ocean. This appears to have been largely caused by discoveries of rich natural resources in the floor of the Arctic Ocean, as well as the realisation that the Arctic ice cap is shrinking every year making the Arctic Ocean more and more navigable, and hence more useful for northern shipping.

Since the sections of the Arctic Ocean of all the countries involved, lie next to each other, each country’s ambitions in the Arctic quickly led to conflicts of interest; with each country attempting to expand its part of the ocean and solidify control over it, at the expense of the other.

Though for now this conflict largely carries a legal character, most countries involved do not shy from increasing their chances of success through military efforts. Canada, whose military establishment is fairly small and unimpressive, quickly started to work on building new Navy bases in its north, as well as on building or acquiring new ice breakers, arctic patrol ships, and UAVs, specifically for northern patrol and defense of its Arctic interests.

In light of the fact that unlike Canada, Russia is a military superpower, its military efforts towards securing and expanding its Arctic interests, can be said to be more noteworthy and far more aggressive than those of Canada. In fact, since 2007, the Russians have reorganized their military forces in the Arctic and considerably increased their control over their Arctic territories with bomber planes and submarines, and started a new armament program focused on rebuilding their northern naval capabilities.1 Russia has also showed readiness to organize special Arctic divisions dressed in unique uniforms, specifically developed by the Russians for arctic operations. The president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Issues has stated that this type of uniform allows military personnel to perform military operations under extremely low temperatures.2 Also, since 2007, NORAD jet fighters have intercepted 12 to 15 Russian bombers per year, most of which were trying to test the defense of Canadian air space. Many of these bombers are designed to carry nuclear warheads, and Russians have been known to fly with nuclear weapons on board just to show that they are still a military superpower.3

Thus, it seems that it would not be farfetched to say that a new Cold War, limited to the Arctic region, is in effect, as all sides of the conflict are actively investing into the expansion of their Arctic forces;4 with Russia already starting to display increasingly threatening behaviour. However, unlike the global Cold War of the years past, in this new local Cold War, Russia appears to have a strong advantage because all NATO members with Arctic interests are pitting themselves against one another instead of collaborating on repelling Russia. Thus, Canada will have a far better chance of taking on Russia in this new local Cold War if it avoids resisting and instead closely cooperates with the US by accommodating their Arctic interests as much as possible in exchange for superior military protection of Canada’s Arctic frontiers.



Can the free-riding problem be alleviated by decisive leadership?

The influence of the informal leader on his followers depends on his capacity to collect information unavailable to other members of his group. The signaling of this information to other team members can increase the level of their individual contributions to the common good and prevent free riding (Meidinger & Villeval, 2002). In particular, the information that would be useful to the leader in this context amounts to the returns from various levels of individual contributions to the common good. However, because the leader desires to increase individual contributions, he has an incentive to lie to his followers regarding the returns from their inputs. Consequently, for a leader, communicating credible information to his followers is costly (Meidinger & Villeval, 2002). Even so, an informal leader who decides to communicate credible information to his followers can still achieve significant positive results. There are two common methods in which informal leaders can transmit credible information to their followers: leading-by-example and leading-by-sacrifice (Meidinger & Villeval, 2002).

A leader who sets an example of ideal behaviour or voluntarily sacrifices something for the good of the group can expect such actions to induce his rational followers to follow his lead. This method is known to work even when the leader wants to mislead his followers (Guth et al. 2004). All experiments, in which a leader of the group decides on his contribution to the public good and his decision is then communicated to other group members who contribute simultaneously thereafter, have shown that in such groups all group members are more likely to contribute more to the public good than in leaderless groups where all group members contribute simultaneously to the public good (Guth et al. 2004). Similarly, announcing the size of the previous leading contributions towards a public good has been shown to increase the average level of contributions that follow (Meidinger & Villeval, 2002).

References

Guth, W., Levati, M. V., Sutter, M., van der Heijden, E. (2004). Leadership and cooperation in public goods experiments. Retrieved from ftp://papers.econ.mpg.de/esi/discussionpapers/2004-29.pdf.

Meidinger, C. & Villeval, M.-C. (2002). Leadership in teams: Signaling or reciprocating? Retrieved from http://old-hha.asb.dk/nat/workshop/MCV1612.PDF.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Is lobbying detrimental to social welfare?

According to Ball (1995), it is widely recognized that lobbying can adversely affect social welfare, by compelling policy-makers to enact policies that are favorable to the lobbying interest groups but harmful to society at large. However, if lobbying is a form of strategic information transmission, from the lobbyist to the policy maker, where the transmitted information is relevant to policy making, then lobbying can also be a welfare improving enterprise (Lagerlöf, 1997).

If we consider a model where there are only three players: two interest groups (one of which can lobby while the other cannot) and the government (which can redistribute income between the two groups), then, even if lobbying is exclusively an enterprise of information transmission, it does not necessarily improve welfare. In fact, the opportunity to lobby provided to the lobbying group, may make it worse, and not better off. In which case, the government, whom it is lobbying, may also be worse off; as could the other interest group which does not have the opportunity to lobby. In such a scenario lobbying clearly has a negative impact on social welfare, at least by the Pareto criterion (Lagerlöf, 1997). In a more optimistic consequence of the same model, the lobbying interest group still ends up being worse off from its lobbying activities, while the non-lobbying interest group and the government end up better off (Lagerlöf, 1997). Also, it is possible that as a consequence of lobbying, the lobbying interest group will be better off, the government will also be better off, but the non-lobbying interest group will be worse off (Lagerlöf, 1997).

In another model (Ball, 1995), the government needs to choose various policies from among alternatives. Interest groups have their own preferences from among these alternatives, but the government doesn’t know well which ones they really are. In an attempt to have the government choose the policies they prefer, interest groups offer the government cash transfers or political support depending on the policies that it will choose. In response the government attempts to maximize its utility by choosing policies which will bring it the greatest net benefit in terms of social welfare (one of its objectives) and cash transfers or political support from interest groups (Ball, 1995).

According to this second model, lobbying will lead to both social welfare-reducing policy distortions and to the conveyance of socially valuable information to the government, but to various degrees, depending on several conditions. More specifically, the model predicts that the welfare-reducing policy distortions will predominate if the government is highly self-interested or if the lobbying is very heavy. On the other hand, the conveyance of socially valuable information to the government will predominate if the various interest groups, engaged in lobbying, have highly different preferences or if the true preferences of interest groups are poorly known to the government before the start of lobbying (Ball, 1995).

References

Ball, R. (1995). Interest groups, influence and welfare. Economics and Politics 7, 119-146.
Lagerlöf, J. (1997). Lobbying, information, and private and social welfare. European Journal of Political Economy 13, 615-637.


Thursday, May 28, 2015

Is inter-bureau competition the only solution to bureaucratic failure?

Inter-bureau competition is clearly not the only solution to bureaucratic failure, but it is definitely one of a number of possible solutions; and it works in several ways. First, competition among bureaus will lead to the demand, for the services of each bureau, dropping and the elasticity of this demand increasing; leading to a reduction in each bureau’s budget. But since each bureau seeks to maximize its budget, it will start seeking out and using more efficient production processes (Niskanen, 1971, p. 198). Second, since each bureau will have to propose its own budget-output combination, the review committee will be able to choose the most efficient budget-output proposal from among several. And third, competition among bureaus is likely to lead to the use of a larger variety of production processes, which is important for preventing a failure in service production, because it was relying on a few faulty processes (Niskanen, 1971, p. 198).

Another effective way for reducing bureaucratic failure, involves changing the incentives of bureaucrats. One such approach would be specifically aimed at reducing the bureau’s costs of supplying an approved level of output. This would be done by compensating senior bureaucrats with a previously fixed portion of the difference between the bureau’s approved budget and the costs of supplying the output (Niskanen, 1971, p. 201-202). Consequently, bureaucrats will be motivated to reduce the costs of the required output; since the lower these costs will be, the more the bureaucrats will earn.

Another approach to reducing bureaucratic failure through changes in incentives to bureaucrats, involves considering senior bureaucrats for large monetary prizes, some years after they have left office. The awarding of these prizes would be based on the extent to which the nominated bureaucrats managed, while in office, to have their agencies supply the required level of output and the amount of funds their agencies managed to return during this period; in other words, prizes for high levels of efficiency (Niskanen, 1971, p. 204). Such an approach, while likely being less motivating than the one described before it, will have one peculiar advantage over it. In particular, objectively evaluating the level and quality of bureau’s current output as well as the level of deterioration of its current capital assets is far easier to do in the future than in the present (Niskanen, 1971, p. 204).

Yet another approach for changing bureaucratic incentives for the sake of reducing bureaucratic failure, would be very much like the one that was described first, except that the senior bureaucrat will not pocket a fixed portion of the difference between the bureau’s approved budget and the costs of supplying the required output, but instead will be allowed to spend it on a limited set of activities that can contribute to the bureau’s morale, long-term viability, and amenities (Niskanen, 1971, p. 206).

Of course bureaucratic failure that exists in the public provision of many goods and services can also be reduced or even completely eliminated by stopping the public provision of such goods and letting the private market fill the void; or by having the funding agencies contract out all the work normally performed by bureaus to private companies. Both of these approaches are known to be very effective in eliminating all kinds of inefficiencies, as the private providers are always motivated to reduce the costs of production while striving to achieve the highest possible quality for the products (Niskanen, 1971). Certain publicly provided goods and services, however, will not be provided by the private market, without any governmental input, because they are nonrival and nonexcludable (Stiglitz, 1988). A good example of such a good is national defense; which, moreover, should never be completely contracted out to private companies; because such a move will be highly dangerous for national security, making the whole enterprise look rather absurd.

References

Niskanen, W. (1971). Bureaucracy and Representative Government. Chicago: Aldine Atherton.

Stiglitz, J. E. (1988). Economics of the Public Sector. 2nd ed. New York: Norton.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

What incentives and information problems cause bureaucrats to make sub-optimal economic choices?

Sub-optimal economic outputs are those which do not satisfy the Pareto efficiency criteria; i.e. it is still possible to make someone better off without making anyone worse off by altering the combination of inputs that produce such outputs. Government bureaus, in particular, tend to produce sub-optimal outputs. There are several possible reasons for this. One is the incentives pushing bureaucrats to make sub-optimal choices. Another, is that the funding agency always has trouble measuring and monitoring the output of the bureau.

While the managers of private enterprises are rewarded based on the profits they contribute to the company, the managers of public enterprises (i.e. the bureaucrats) are not. This primarily happens because public enterprises (i.e. the bureaus) are not driven by profit, instead their job is to supply various goods and services below the price that they would fetch if provided by private enterprises; which, in turn, happens because the government believes that if the provision of these goods was the left to the private market, many people would consume less of these goods, than they should (Stiglitz, 1988). So either way, the bureaucrat is not driven by the need to maximize the profits of his/her firm; which leaves open the question of what, if anything, drives the bureaucrat in his/her work.

A relatively widespread and influential, though far from unchallenged (Blais and Dion, 1991), assumption, is that an ever larger size of the bureau or its budget is what every bureaucrat seeks to achieve; because it is very reasonable to believe that a bureau’s size and budget are positively correlated with its manager’s salary, power, public reputation, patronage, etc.; the rewards which everyone can be expected to strive for (Niskanen, 1971).

But correlation does not imply causation; and according to Lindsay (1976), there is no reason to believe that an enlarged bureau or its budget will lead to a greater compensation for its manager. In fact, according to him, the whole idea is absurd as it implies that public managers are compensated based on the size of the inputs into their bureaus only. And no responsible elected official would agree to compensate a bureaucrat according to such a scheme. In fact, a bureaucrat who is compensated according to such a scheme would not feel any incentive to produce any output at all. While in reality, all enterprises, whether public or private, are evaluated based on the output they produce (Lindsay, 1976).

The output of all companies, whether private or public, can be expected to be monitored in some way by their owners or funding agencies, as everyone wants to see valuable results from their contributions to the company. Owners of private enterprises assess the outputs of their companies by monitoring profits. Moreover, the value of output of private firms is strongly monitored by the firm’s customers. If the value to the customers is low, the firm’s profits drop (Lindsay, 1976). On the other hand, the agencies that fund bureaus can neither rely on bureaus’ profits nor on bureaus’ customers to monitor the value of their outputs, as the bureaus are not in the business of making money (and hence have no profits to speak of); and they are not allowed to charge maximum possible prices for their outputs. Consequently, the funding agencies are forced to completely rely on personal monitoring of bureaus’ internal resource use and the quality of outputs (Lindsay, 1976). This monitoring, however, is costly and difficult as bureaus are too large and complex to be known inside out by anyone working outside of them. Moreover, monitoring the quality of outputs, without real input from the consumers of these outputs, is no less difficult as only the measurable aspects of the output can be monitored. So, all other, non-measurable qualities of the output, which can, as a matter of fact, be crucial to customer satisfaction, go unmonitored. This, in turn, pushes the bureaus’ managers to divert resources from unmeasurable aspects of the output to measurable aspects (Lindsay, 1976).

This theory can be tested, for example, by comparing measurable (and hence available) characteristics of Veterans Administration hospitals and private US hospitals. Producing such unmeasurable attributes of the output, as the frequency of visits to the wards by hospital staff or the number smiles and words of encouragement they deliver during each visit (hence taking more time with each patient), will obviously require a higher staff-to-patient ratio (Lindsay, 1976). Since according to the theory, the governmental agency that funds VA hospitals cannot be expected to fund any unmeasurable attributes of the output, the VA hospitals can certainly be expected to neglect those just mentioned. On the other hand, private hospitals will not neglect producing such unmeasurable attributes of the output because they are clearly important for customer (patient) satisfaction. Consequently, VA hospitals can be expected to have a lower staff-to-patient ratio than private hospitals. And this prediction is well supported by the available data (Lindsay, 1976).

References

Blais, A., and Dion, S. (Eds.) (1991a). The Budget-Maximizing Bureaucrat: Appraisal and Evidence. Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press.

Lindsay, C. 1976. A theory of government enterprise. Journal of Political Economy 84 (5), 1061-1078.

Niskanen, W. (1971). Bureaucracy and Representative Government. Chicago: Aldine Atherton.

Stiglitz, J. E. (1988). Economics of the Public Sector. 2nd ed. New York: Norton.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Can leadership rest exclusively on voluntary followership?

Servant leaders put the needs, interests and aspirations of other people above their own. And they primarily aim to serve rather than to lead (Sendjaya & Sarros, 2002). Moreover, their altruistic intentions lead them to seek to improve their followers in every possible way, whether it is to make them more autonomous, wiser, freer, healthier, etc.; hence, compelling them to be all they can be and thus move in a certain direction at their own free will. In other words, such a leader leads by raising other people to a higher level of motivation and morality (Sendjaya & Sarros, 2002).

Servant leadership is related to charismatic leadership. In fact, managers who are seen as charismatic are often perceived by their subordinates to be engaging in altruistic acts (Conger, Kanungo, & Menon, 2000). Also, “when subordinates perceive that their manager is exhibiting leadership behaviors, they will not only attribute charisma to him or her but also change their attitudes, values, and behavior consistent with what the manager wants from them” (Conger, Kanungo, & Menon, 2000).


Certain “field studies of charismatic leaders in business [found] that subordinates often described their attraction to the leader’s qualities of self-confidence, strong convictions in the mission, a willingness to undertake personal risks, and a history of prior accomplishment.” Consequently, meeting the high expectations of such a leader gave the subordinates a sense of fulfilling their own potential (Conger & Kanungo, 1998, p. 20). Also, to the subordinates, the attractive outcomes offered by the leader’s vision were motivating in themselves; while a key measure of a subordinate’s self-worth started to stem from the personal approval given by the charismatic leader. This led to a dependency on the leader, as in the eyes of the subordinate the leader now defined the subordinate’s level of performance and ability (Conger & Kanungo, 1998, p. 20). Consequently, the standards of performance and approval for subordinates began to be set by the leader’s expression of high expectations, while the subordinates’ motivation was further heightened by a continual sense of urgency created by the leader and his/her capacity to make subordinates feel unique. “Taken together, these actions promoted a sense of obligation in followers to continually live up to their leader’s expectations” (Conger & Kanungo, 1998, p. 21). This sense of obligation grows with the deepening of the relationship. A sense of duty and responsibility is created by the leader’s expression of confidence in the abilities of his/her subordinates. Consequently, only through great accomplishments can the subordinates validate the leader’s trust in them. Over time, as this process continues, the subordinates’ self-worth ends up being at the mercy of the leader’s affirmation, as without it subordinates start to feel that they are underperforming or even failing (Conger & Kanungo, 1998, p. 21). 

References

Conger, J. A., and Kanungo, R. N. (1998). Charismatic Leadership in Organizations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. 

Conger, J. A., Kanungo, R. N. & Menon, S. T. (2000). Charismatic leadership and follower effects. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 21, 747-767. 

Sendjaya, S., and Sarros, J. (2002). Servant leadership: Its origin, development, and application in organizations. Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies, 9(2), 57-64. Retrieved from http://www.lead.fju.edu.tw/teacher/Lucia/course/Servant%20Leadership/2002-09-Servant%20leadership%20%20It's%20origin,%20development,%20and%20application%20in%20organizations.pdf

Monday, May 25, 2015

What is New Public Management, and how effective is it?

The use of consultants for public policy analysis can be clearly linked to New Public Management. New Public Management (NPM) is generally “used to describe a management culture that… suggests structural or organizational choices that promote decentralized control through a wide variety of alternative service delivery mechanisms, including quasi-markets with public and private service providers competing for resources from policymakers and donors.”1 Thus, NPM ideas are at the heart of the practice of public organizations hiring private contractors to assist with/carry out policy analysis.

However, “NPM’s focus on disaggregation and competition automatically increased the numbers of administrative units and created more complex and dynamic interrelationships among them, compared with previous PPA systems.”2 Consequently, “Some NPM reforms touted specifically as increasing transparency have ended up instead creating bizarre new layers of impenetrability…”3 Thus,

NPM boosted policy complexity and impaired to some degree social problem-solving… In addition, increased policy complexity has negative effects on levels of citizen competence… The more difficult it is for citizens to understand internal state arrangements and to operate appropriate access points to represent their interests politically and administratively, the more their autonomous capabilities to solve policy problems may be eroded.4

Also, according Chang (2008, p. 169-170), some NPM-inspired reforms increased corruption by increasing the number of contracts with private sector and thus increasing opportunities for bribes.5 Similarly, Nield (2002, p. 198) considers NPM an antithesis to the ideal public servants who have a number of incentives to neutrally perform their job regardless of the politicians in power at any one time.6

Notes

3. Ibid.

4. Ibid.

5. Chang, Ha-Joon. (2008). Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the secret history of Capitalism. Bloomsbury Press USA.

6. Nield, Robert. (2002). Public Corruption: The Dark Side of Social Evolution. UK: Anthem Press.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

What mechanisms are in place to address the problem that the appointment of the Canadian Supreme Court Judges, their decisions, or even their conduct, are, or at least can be, prone to political partisanship and lack of accountability?

The key recent change to the process of appointing judges to the Supreme Court was the ‘creation’ in 2004 of “a formal Advisory Committee on Supreme Court appointments … which is formed each time a vacancy on the Court occurs.1 Judging from its structure, the Committee is clearly designed to be as representative of as many different interests, within Canada, as possible. And once this diverse group of representatives is formed, they are tasked with selecting three candidates from the list of seven, given to them by the federal Minister of Justice. Out of the three candidates selected by the Committee, the Prime Minister chooses one, who is then appointed to the Supreme Court.2Originally, the Committee was prohibited from directly questioning the candidates during its review… In 2006, however, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper signaled that future Committees may have greater access to the candidates…”3

“Parliament created the Canadian Judicial Council in 1971. … [It] was granted power under the Judges Act to investigate complaints made by members of the public and the Attorney General about the conduct (not the decisions) of federally appointed judges. After its investigation of a complaint, the Council can make recommendations, including removing a judge from office.”4 However, the Council’s “main purpose is to set policies and provide tools that help the judicial system remain efficient, uniform, and accountable.”5

Notes
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
5. Ibid.