… By virtue of their control over secret
information, intelligence agencies are ideally suited to provide comprehensive
strategic analyses for policymakers. “The intelligence community,” writes
Richard Betts, “is the logical set of institutions to provide what one may call
the library function for national security: it keeps track of all sources,
secret or not, and mobilizes them in coherent form whenever nonexpert
policymakers call for them.” (Rovner, 2011, p. 4)
… How should we
measure progress in the war on terrorism? How do we know if we are winning or
losing? How do we wage counterinsurgency campaigns against elusive and amorphous
enemies? How do we understand the increasingly complex relationships between
nation-states, armed groups, and transnational actors? What are the long-term
goals of resurgent great powers like Russia and China? How close are states
like Iran to acquiring nuclear weapons? What do they intend to do with them? (Rovner,
2011, p. vii)
Intelligence
agencies exist to grapple with questions like these. They collect a staggering
amount of information, synthesize reports from secret and open sources, and try
to distill it into digestible analytical products for policymakers, diplomats,
and military officers. When all goes well, intelligence estimates play an
important role in strategic judgement, adding unique kinds of information and
insight to help leaders cope with the inherent uncertainty and complexity of
international politics. (Rovner, 2011, p. vii)
References
Rovner, J. (2011). Fixing the Facts: National Security and the
Politics of Intelligence. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
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